Bracketology 2018: T-30 days and counting

With only 30 days left until Selection Sunday, I figured it would be a good time to start sharing my predicted brackets and final outcome. I’ve been refining my methodology over the past few years; it’s never aligned with what the selection committee has picked, but it has come fairly close.

These predictions are based on the predicted outcomes of future games, not necessarily how a team is performing today.

Final Four

Virginia over Gonzaga: 68-61
Cincinnati over Purdie: 69-68

Virginia over Cincinnati: 60-56

Homer (Kentucky) Notes

I have the Kentucky Wildcats currently as a six seed (I’ve predicted them to drop the 4 of their remaining 7 games).

For their 1st round game, the Wildcats face off against the Norse of Northern Kentucky. After a narrow, 2 point victory (71-69) over the Norse, Kentucky faces Shockers of Wichita State.

Unfortunately, the Shockers live up to their name, defeating the Wildcats by 2 points (74-72), sending the Wildcats back to Lexington.

Lousiville also gets knocked out in the 2nd round by Michagan, 69-68.

Bracket Regions and Seeds

RegionSeedOverall
Rank
TeamConference
East12VillanovaBig East
East28Rhode IslandAtlantic 10
East311North CarolinaACC
East415BuffaloMid-American
East520Texas TechBig 12
East621New Mexico StateWestern Athletic
East725VermontAmerica East
East829Seton HallBig East
East936GonzagaWest Coast
East1040West VirginiaBig 12
East1142SyracuseACC
East1245Murray StateOhio Valley
East1352NortheasternColonial Athletic
East1456BucknellPatriot League
East1562College of CharlestonColonial Athletic
East1681PennsylvaniaIvy League
MidWest11VirginiaACC
MidWest25KansasBig 12
MidWest312CincinnatiAmerican Athletic
MidWest414Ohio StateBig Ten
MidWest517PurdueBig Ten
MidWest624KentuckySoutheastern
MidWest728MissouriSoutheastern
MidWest832Loyola-ChicagoMissouri Valley
MidWest934South Dakota StateSummit League
MidWest1038Southern CaliforniaPac 12
MidWest1143Western KentuckyConference USA
MidWest1248CreightonBig East
MidWest1350WagnerNortheast
MidWest1455WashingtonPac 12
MidWest1560LouisvilleACC
MidWest1688Stephen F. AustinSouthland
MidWest16112Prairie View A&MSWAC
South13ClemsonACC
South26AuburnSoutheastern
South39TennesseeSoutheastern
South416Middle TennesseeConference USA
South518LouisianaSun Belt
South622Michigan StateBig Ten
South726Miami (Fla.)ACC
South830RiderMAAC
South935TCUBig 12
South1039ButlerBig East
South1141E. Tennessee StateSouthern
South1246UNC-AshevilleBig South
South1351St. BonaventureAtlantic 10
South1453HoustonAmerican Athletic
South1457FloridaSoutheastern
South1559BelmontOhio Valley
South1680Northern KentuckyHorizon League
South16183North Carolina A&TMEAC
West14DukeACC
West27XavierBig East
West310Texas A&MSoutheastern
West413NevadaMountain West
West519St. Mary’sWest Coast
West623ArizonaPac 12
West727Wichita StateAmerican Athletic
West831Arizona StatePac 12
West933Boise StateMountain West
West1037MontanaBig Sky
West1144ToledoMid-American
West1247OklahomaBig 12
West1349UC IrvineBig West
West1454Santa BarbaraBig West
West1458UCLAPac 12
West1561Utah ValleyWestern Athletic
West1692Florida Gulf CoastAtlantic Sun

2018 NCAA Seed Lines

1. Virginia (ACC)2. Villanova (Big East)3. Clemson (ACC)4. Duke (ACC)
5. Kansas (Big 12)6. Auburn (Southeastern)7. Xavier (Big East)8. Rhode Island (Atlantic 10)
9. Tennessee (Southeastern)10. Texas A&M (Southeastern)11. North Carolina (ACC)12. Cincinnati (American Athletic)
13. Nevada (Mountain West)14. Ohio State (Big Ten)15. Buffalo (Mid-American)16. Middle Tennessee (Conference USA)
17. Purdue (Big Ten)18. Louisiana (Sun Belt)19. St. Mary’s (West Coast)20. Texas Tech (Big 12)
21. New Mexico State (Western Athletic)22. Michigan State (Big Ten)23. Arizona (Pac 12)24. Kentucky (Southeastern)
25. Vermont (America East)26. Miami (Fla.) (ACC)27. Wichita State (American Athletic)28. Missouri (Southeastern)
29. Seton Hall (Big East)30. Rider (MAAC)31. Arizona State (Pac 12)32. Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley)
33. Boise State (Mountain West)34. South Dakota State (Summit League)35. TCU (Big 12)36. Gonzaga (West Coast)
37. Montana (Big Sky)38. Southern California (Pac 12)39. Butler (Big East)40. West Virginia (Big 12)
41. E. Tennessee State (Southern)42. Syracuse (ACC)43. Western Kentucky (Conference USA)44. Toledo (Mid-American)
45. Murray State (Ohio Valley)46. UNC-Asheville (Big South)47. Oklahoma (Big 12)48. Creighton (Big East)
49. UC Irvine (Big West)50. Wagner (Northeast)51. St. Bonaventure (Atlantic 10)52. Northeastern (Colonial Athletic)
53. Houston (American Athletic)54. Santa Barbara (Big West)55. Washington (Pac 12)56. Bucknell (Patriot League)
57. Florida (Southeastern)58. UCLA (Pac 12)59. Belmont (Ohio Valley)60. Louisville (ACC)
61. Utah Valley (Western Athletic)62. College of Charleston (Colonial Athletic)63. Northern Kentucky (Horizon League)64. Pennsylvania (Ivy League)
65. Stephen F. Austin (Southland)66. Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)67. Prairie View A&M (SWAC)68. North Carolina A&T (MEAC)

Breakdown By Conference

ConferenceSeeded Teams
ACC7
Southeastern6
Big East5
Pac 125
Big 125
American Athletic3
Big Ten3
Mid-American2
Ohio Valley2
Mountain West2
Colonial Athletic2
Atlantic 102
Conference USA2
West Coast2
Big West2
Western Athletic2
MEAC1
Summit League1
Southern1
Big Sky1
SWAC1
Missouri Valley1
Ivy League1
Big South1
Southland1
Northeast1
Sun Belt1
Atlantic Sun1
America East1
Horizon League1
Patriot League1
MAAC1

Outside Looking In (bubble teams)

TeamConference
AlabamaSoutheastern
ProvidenceBig East
Old DominionConference USA
NebraskaBig Ten
Wright StateHorizon League
Illinois StateMissouri Valley
TempleAmerican Athletic
Brigham YoungWest Coast

 

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