If you’ve been doomscrolling crime headlines lately, you might want to sit down for this: we’re actually living through one of the sharpest drops in violent crime in modern U.S. history. The murder rate? On track to hit a 65-year low in 2025. That’s not a typo.
I came across The New York Times Editorial Board’s piece, Crime Keeps Falling. Here’s Why, and it’s worth a pause before we all rush off to the next crisis. Their argument boils down to two big drivers — one social, one about policing — and together they paint a surprisingly hopeful picture.
The Social Glue Came Back
Remember 2020? Of course you do. Everything closed. Kids were stuck at home. People yelled at each other about masks, vaccines, and politics. The air felt tense, and not just because of the virus. Sociologists call it anomie — that breakdown of the subtle social rules that keep communities functioning.
When that frays, rules start to feel optional. We saw it in reckless driving, road rage, petty theft, even little things like talking through movies. Crime spiked.
Fast forward to today: schools are open, churches and community centers are running, people are back in public spaces. That “everyone-for-themselves” vibe has eased, and crime has fallen with it.
The Policing Pendulum Swung Back
During the 2020 protests, “defund the police” became a rallying cry. While most cities didn’t actually slash budgets, morale took a hit. Some officers quit, others pulled back, and enforcement of low-level crimes got… patchy. Parts of cities felt lawless.
Now? Staffing levels are stabilizing, enforcement has ticked back up, and some states have rolled back overly lenient policies. The defund movement is widely seen as a failed experiment, and there’s been a shift back toward visible policing — without throwing out reform efforts entirely.
Why This Matters
The Times warns against complacency. Even with today’s numbers, violent crime in the U.S. is still higher than in most peer countries. Lax gun laws remain a glaring weak spot. And while reforming abusive policing practices is essential, gutting basic law enforcement isn’t the way to do it.
Their takeaway is refreshingly simple: social trust matters, and so does effective law enforcement. When both are in good shape, the crime needle moves faster than we think.
My Takeaways for Leaders and Policymakers
- Keep the social infrastructure strong — schools, parks, and civic institutions are as much crime prevention tools as any patrol car.
- Balance reform and enforcement — fix what’s broken in policing without abandoning the basics.
- Watch the trends early — use data to see the next spike before it hits.
💡 Memorable line from the editorial: “Law enforcement matters, and the national mood matters — and together they can move the crime needle faster than we often believe.”
If you’re in public policy, policing, or community leadership, bookmark this one. And if you’re just a citizen trying to make sense of the headlines, here’s some rare good news: the numbers are moving in the right direction — and we have a decent idea of why.