Inspired by The work is never just “the work” by Dave Stewart
“Even a detailed estimate of ‘the work’ can miss the dark matter that makes up the majority of a project’s real effort.”
When it comes to project management—especially in software and creative work—most of us have lived through the agony of missed deadlines and ballooning timelines. It’s tempting to blame bad luck, moving goalposts, or simple optimism. But as Dave Stewart reveals, there’s a more systemic, and ultimately more instructive, explanation.
Let’s step back and see the big picture—the “systems view”—and discover why underestimation isn’t just a personal failing, but a deeply-rooted feature of how complex projects function.
The Invisible System: Why “The Work” is Just the Tip of the Iceberg
Stewart’s article provides a hard-won confession: after a year-long project went wildly off course, he realized the effort spent on “the work” (i.e., coding, designing, building) was just a fraction of the total investment. The majority was spent on what he calls the “work around the work”—from setup and research, to iteration, firefighting, and post-launch support.
From a systems thinker’s standpoint, this is a textbook example of the planning fallacy—a cognitive bias where we underestimate complexity by focusing on visible tasks and ignoring the web of dependencies and uncertainty that surrounds every project.
Mapping the Project Ecosystem
What Stewart does beautifully is name and map the categories of hidden labor:
- Preparation: Infrastructure, setup, initial research
- Acquisition: Scoping, pitching, client meetings
- Iteration: Debugging, refactoring, ongoing improvements
- Support: Deployment, updates, ongoing fixes
- The Unexpected: Surprises, scope creep, disasters
By visualizing the project as an ecosystem—where “the work” is only one node among many—he demonstrates a key principle of systems thinking: emergent complexity. Each category adds not just linear effort, but amplifies feedback loops (delays, misunderstandings, unexpected roadblocks) that make estimation so hazardous.
Patterns and Implications
A systems lens reveals several recurring patterns:
- Invisible Feedback Loops: Tasks outside “the work” (meetings, reviews, firefighting) generate new work, shifting priorities and resource allocation—often without being tracked or acknowledged.
- Nonlinear Impact: Small “invisible” tasks, left unaccounted for, aggregate into substantial overruns. Like dark matter, their presence is felt even if they remain unseen.
- Optimism Bias Is Systemic: Most teams and individuals underestimate not out of ignorance, but because our brains and organizational structures reward “happy path” thinking.
- Every Project Is a Living System: Changing one part (e.g., a delayed client feedback loop) can ripple through the whole system, derailing even the most detailed plan.
Designing for Reality, Not Idealism
The key takeaway for systems thinkers is awareness and intentional design:
- Model the Whole System: During estimation, explicitly map out all “nodes”—not just core deliverables but supporting, enabling, and maintaining tasks.
- Quantify Uncertainty: Use multipliers, ranges, and postmortems to factor in the “dark matter” of invisible work.
- Surface Assumptions: Name and question the implicit beliefs behind every estimate (e.g., “the client will provide feedback within 24 hours”—will they, really?).
- Iterate the System: Treat your estimation process itself as a system to be improved, not a static formula.
Actionable Insights for the Systems Thinker
- Create a “Work Ecosystem Map” for each new project, labeling categories like preparation, acquisition, iteration, support, and surprises.
- Hold Team Retrospectives focused not just on deliverables but on the “meta-work” that surrounded them—what did we miss? What new loops emerged?
- Educate Stakeholders: Share frameworks like Stewart’s to align expectations and build organizational literacy around hidden work.
- Measure, Don’t Assume: Use real project data to tune your own multipliers and assumptions over time.
Final Thought
Projects are living systems, not checklists. By recognizing the invisible forces at play, we empower ourselves (and our teams) to design more resilient processes, set realistic expectations, and—just maybe—find more satisfaction in the work itself.
“The work is never just the work. It’s everything else—unseen, unsung, but absolutely essential.”
Further Reading:
Dive into the original article: The work is never just “the work”
Reflect on the planning fallacy: Wikipedia – Planning Fallacy
Explore systems thinking: Donella Meadows – Thinking in Systems
